Wheat (Kansas) (Electronic)
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Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: March 2018

Wheat (Kansas) (Electronic) (KCBT)

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Contract Specifications:KE,KCBT
Trading Unit: 5,000 bu.
Tick Size: 1/4 cent/bu. = $12.50
Quoted Units: US $ per bushel
Initial Margin: $2,500   Maint Margin: $2.000
Contract Months: Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec
First Notice Day: The business day preceding the first business day of the liquidating month.
Last Trading Day: There is no trading during the last seven (7) business days of the liquidating month
Trading Hours: Electronic: 6:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. Sunday through Friday;
9:30 a.m. to 1:15 p.m. Monday through Friday
Daily Limit: 60 cents ($3,000 per contract) above or below previous day's settlement price.

Analysis

Mon 1/15/18

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market appears oversold, but may continue to become more oversold before reversing. Look for some price strength before taking any bullish positions based on this indicator.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average. WARNING: Market momentum slowed down on this bar. This is indicated by the fact that the difference between the two moving average lines is smaller on this bar than on the previous bar. Its possible that we may see a market rally.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Recently the market has been extremely bullish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bullishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is down from the previous bar, price is below the fast moving average, price is below the slow moving average. Its possible that we may see a market pullback here. if so, the pullback might turn out to be a good buying opportunity.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The market trend has changed direction. Now the market trend is DOWN!

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The long term trend has changed direction. Now the long term trend is DOWN! The short term trend is DOWN. SlowK was down this bar for the second bar in a row. We may have seen the top of the up move for a while. The market looks weak both long term and short term. The SlowK is at (34.95). A good downward move is possible without SlowK being oversold.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The long term trend has changed direction. Now the long term trend is DOWN! The short term trend is DOWN. SlowK was down this bar for the first time in a while. Its possible that we may see a down move here. if next bar's SlowK is also down, then a possible top may have been established. The market looks weak both long term and short term. The SlowK is at (62.84). A good downward move is possible without SlowK being oversold.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: The volatility trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, has just switched to up.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. A bearish key reversal off a 5 bar new high here here suggests a decline.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 44.94). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 44.94). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (23.43) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (23.43) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. The market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high, suggesting closing any long positions here.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI signals a bearish trade when the DMI+crosses below the DMI-, as it has here.

Additional Analysis: DMI has signaled a bearish trade. A bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here strengthens this outlook.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term decline within the next few bars. A bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here confirms this bearish outlook.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-0.50) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is in bearish territory. And, a bearish key reversaloff a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is likely.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-0.12) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is in bearish territory. And, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is likely.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

Lt Crude 63.93
Nat Gas 3.047
Corn 348 2/8
Cotton #2 81.66
Gold 1334.8
Copper 3.1960
Euro 1.22675
USD Index 90.460
SP500 E-mini 2800.75
DJIA E-mini 26014
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