30 Year T-Bond (Globex)
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Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: March 2018

30 Year T-Bond (Globex) (CBOT)

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Contract Specifications:ZB,CBOT
Trading Unit: One U.S. Treasury Bond having a face value at maturity of $100,000 or multiple thereof.
Tick Size: 1/32 of a point ($31.25/contract); par is on the basis of 100 points
Quoted Units: Points ($1,000) and one-half of 1/32 of a point
Initial Margin: $4,320   Maint Margin: $3,200
Contract Months: Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
First Notice Day: Last business day of month preceding contract month.
Last Trading Day: Seventh business day preceding the last business day of the delivery month.
Trading Hours: Electronic: 17:30 pm - 16:00 pm, Chicago time, Sunday - Friday
Trading in expiring contracts closes at noon, Chicago time, on the last trading day
Daily Limit: none

Analysis

Wed 12/13/17

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be declining, as evidenced by a decreasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is down from previous bar, the slow moving average slope is down from previous bar, price goes below the fast moving average, price goes below the slow moving average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The market trend has changed direction. Now the trend is UP!

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The market looks strong both long term and short term. The SlowK is at (63.89). A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 56.57). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 56.57). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence before getting too bearish here.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. However, a falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (54.90) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (54.90) has crossed above zero, issuing a signal to close short positions and initiate long positions.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is greater than DMI-, indicating an upward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bullish territory.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD has issued a bullish signal. A bullish signal is generated when the FastMA crosses above the SlowMA, as it has here.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD has issued a bullish signal, since the FastMA has just crossed above the SlowMA. With the current trend to the upside, this suggests prices will continue to rise for a time.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (1.50) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is in bullish territory.upside move is likely.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (0.99) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is in bullish territory.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

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