30 Year T-Bond (Globex)
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30 Year T-Bond (Globex) (CBOT)

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Contract Specifications:ZB,CBOT
Trading Unit: One U.S. Treasury Bond having a face value at maturity of $100,000 or multiple thereof.
Tick Size: 1/32 of a point ($31.25/contract); par is on the basis of 100 points
Quoted Units: Points ($1,000) and one-half of 1/32 of a point
Initial Margin: $4,320   Maint Margin: $3,200
Contract Months: Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
First Notice Day: Last business day of month preceding contract month.
Last Trading Day: Seventh business day preceding the last business day of the delivery month.
Trading Hours: Electronic: 17:30 pm - 16:00 pm, Chicago time, Sunday - Friday
Trading in expiring contracts closes at noon, Chicago time, on the last trading day
Daily Limit: none

Analysis

Fri 12/8/17

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: The market is in overbought territory. And, the market just signaled a 9 bar bearish key reversal adding to the chance for a decline here.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bullish, we will not classify it as extremely bullish until the following occurs: price goes above the fast moving average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is down from previous bar, price goes below the fast moving average.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought. However, a down move in SlowK for this bar is a little concerning short term.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP. A bearish key reversal off a 5 bar new high here here suggests a decline, and decreasing volume supports the likelihood of a downturn in the market.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (1.51) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (1.51) has crossed above zero, issuing a signal to close short positions and initiate long positions.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD has issued a bullish signal. A bullish signal is generated when the FastMA crosses above the SlowMA, as it has here.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD has issued a bullish signal, since the FastMA has just crossed above the SlowMA. With the current trend to the upside, this suggests prices will continue to rise for a time.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (1.19) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market. And, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is possible.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (0.78) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is indicating an overbought market. And, a bear key reversal off a 9 bar new high here suggests a downside move is possible.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 50.03). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 50.03) suggesting a possible market decline. Further, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here makes a downturn in the market even more likely

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought. However, a down move in SlowK for this bar is a little concerning short term.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

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