Ethanol (Globex)
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Weekly Commodity Futures Price Chart

Ethanol (Globex) (CBOT)

TFC Commodity Charts

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Contract Specifications:ZK,CBOT
Trading Unit: 29,000 U.S. gallons
Tick Size: One tenth of one cent ($0.001) per gallon ($29 per contract)
Quoted Units: US $ per gallon
Initial Margin: $5,670   Maint Margin: $4,200
Contract Months: All 12 months.
Last Trading Day: The business day prior to the 15th calendar day of the delivery month.
Trading Hours: CBOT Electronic Platform: 6:00 p.m. 6:00 a.m.Chicago Time, Sunday-Friday
Note: Expiring contract closes at 12:00 noon on Last Trading Day.
Daily Limit: Thirty cents ($0.30) per gallon. No spot month limit.

Analysis

Fri 7/21/17

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be declining, as evidenced by a decreasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market is in oversold territory. And, the market just signaled a 9 bar bearish key reversal adding to the chance for a decline here.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is down from previous bar, the slow moving average slope is down from previous bar.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is down from previous bar.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought. However, a down move in SlowK for this bar is a little concerning short term.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. A bearish key reversal off a 5 bar new high here here suggests a decline.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-0.75) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (-0.75) is currently short. The current short position will be reversed when the CCI crosses above zero. Further, the market just signaled a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high, suggesting some downside action here.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (0.01) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market, and appears to be slowing. Further, a bearish key reversal off a 9 bar new high here supports this outlook.A modest downturn is possible here.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (0.73) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is indicating an overbought market, and appears to be slowing. Further, a bearish key reversaloff a 9 bar new high here supports this outlook. A modest downturn is possible here.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 47.63). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 47.63). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed below the SlowD line; this indicates a sell signal.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought. However, a down move in SlowK for this bar is a little concerning short term.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

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